By CHRIS POWELL
A brief chronology from the last four months may explain Connecticut’s political economy better than any so-called political scientist could.
Child’s suicide should prompt a review that goes beyond DCF
Property tax isn’t broken; our political backbone is
Party balloon litter is bad but ‘nip’ bottle litter is profit
In February, with the state’s high and ever-rising cost of living — its “affordability” — beginning to get political attention, Governor Lamont said state government was doing so well financially that it should bestow tax rebates of $200 on more than 2 million taxpayers, an expense that would total about $400 million. The governor’s proposal prompted much cynicism and derision, since the rebates would be delivered a few days before the election in November, in which Lamont will probably be the Democratic nominee for re-election. But at least the governor’s proposal was a token of respect for those paying government’s bills.
But then the General Assembly convened and the major interests that rely on state government appropriations descended on the state Capitol. They maintained that their own affordability challenges were more compelling than those of mere taxpayers.
The governor already had promised generous raises to the state employee unions, since government employees are the biggest component of his political party and the Democrats overwhelmingly control the legislature. So the governor negotiated and the legislature approved a new master union contract for the state employees, estimated to cost $675 million more over the next three years than is now being spent for their services.
Municipal government officials were well represented at the Capitol too, and the governor and legislative leaders promised them an extra $270 million in state financial aid, much of it for “education,” the euphemism for raises for unionized teachers, another big component of the Democratic Party. Most of the rest of the extra aid will cover raises for other unionized municipal employees, another Democratic-leaning group.
These raises are euphemized as “contractual obligations” as if the obligations are forces of nature or acts of God, beyond the control of mere mortals, though municipal elected officials helped write and agreed to the contracts imposing the obligations.
So when the legislative session was through, the governor’s proposal for $200 rebates for taxpayers had disappeared. He didn’t fight for it. He was persuaded to abandon it by a more accurate political calculation — that the unionized government employees pay far more attention than taxpayers do and would notice and act on the extra money much more than taxpayers would.
So this year in Connecticut “affordability” will be for government employees. They have earned it with their political activism for the Democrats. Other state residents will have to keep bearing their tax burden, which they have earned with their apathy and will keep earning if, as expected, they return the Democrats to power in November.
For as the journalist James Reston observed, the first rule of politics is the indifference of the majority. Government money keeps going to the minority that is most mobilized politically to claim it, not necessarily to where it might do the most good for the public. That’s Connecticut’s political economy.
Even so, a recent poll of Connecticut residents taken by the University of New Hampshire’s Survey Center suggested a surprising undertone of dissatisfaction with Governor Lamont and his administration. The poll found that Lamont’s job approval is trending gradually down, with 48% approving and 46% disapproving, and with majorities unhappy with his handling of the state’s cost of living, taxes, housing, and the economy.
It’s not that the governor has been raising taxes. That complaint in the poll may reflect resentment of municipal property taxes, which rise steadily in part because of longstanding state mandates on local government, like binding arbitration of government employee union contracts.
It’s not clear whether the governor is judged poorly on housing because there is a shortage and prices are high or because he supports controversial legislation that would slightly constrain municipal zoning to encourage housing construction in the suburbs.
But in any case the poll hints at openings for the governor’s challengers — not that they yet have the campaign money, the wit, or the courage to exploit them.
Chris Powell has written about Connecticut government and politics for many years. (CPowell@cox.net)